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Re: Banks are not banks anymore

Posted by Bob Smith on September 25, 2006 at 9:17 AM

In Reply to: Banks are not banks anymore posted by Rick, the Probate Guy on September 24, 2006 at 8:26 AM

: So, what do you think is going to happen this round?

I think there's a good chance FNMA will collapse. OFHEO refuses to rein them in (FNMA donates a lot of money to its Democrat patrons), and the SEC is looking at indictments against its executives for misstating earnings in order to maximize profit-sharing payouts. They've already "restated" about $16 billion worth of losses, and future losses (IMO) are sure to come. A collapse, or even a significant downgrade in FNMA's bond rating, will cause panic in the bond markets. FNMA has issued or guaranteed well over $1 trillion in debt, and more than a trillion in variable-rate debt is due to ratchet up in the next year or so. I think all this, or the threat of this, will severely constrict the lending markets, further accelerating a deflating real estate marketplace and upping the pain level of homeowners suffering under ARMs (falling value + tight refi market == real bad news).


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