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[ Follow Ups ] [ Post Followup ] [ The Forum Board ] [ FAQ ] Atomic bombs and other tell-tale signs of implosive change Posted by Rick, the Probate Guy on September 21, 2006 at 9:05 PM In Reply to: DELINQUENCIES posted by Larry Nusbaum on September 21, 2006 at 8:42 PM Larry - you are "chartless" Maybe your image didn't get loaded by the server. Anyway, this is all well and good, but theory has never made me a dime. Strategy, yes. Effort, yes. Perseverence, training, connections, favors, patience, yes, yes, yes, yes. But theory, no, not so much. Your post would be much more relavent to me and likely to other if you could tie in what you intend to do with this information. For example, all government studies, university sampling and institutional research strongly suggests that people will continue to die and leave behind messes. OK. I know what to do with this information. Look for their messes and find a way to add value in the "cleaning up" process (real estate, of course). I think that we're past the point of needing a reading on the market. Besides, as a favorite author of mine suggests, "When the sage points to the moon, all the idiot sees is his finger." So true. Rick, the-wannabe-philosophical, probate guy. ================================================= : With home prices set to move even lower as inventory is reduced, and monthly payments set to rise as mortgage rate resets kick in, more and more homeowners are in danger of delinquency, suggesting more widespread foreclosures. As you can see in the chart below, housing affordability has been in a free fall. : Delinquencies lag affordability, but note the big subsequent surge in delinquencies after affordability sank in 2000¡V2001. Affordability is much worse today than it was during the last recession, in 2001, while household debt payments have jumped to nearly 14% of disposable income, an all-time record. With home prices and mortgage rates receding, there is hope for a bottom in affordability. But given the lagged effect, a rise in delinquencies may already be baked in the cake. : : Banks may be at risk as well, as they have become steadily more dependent on residential real estate loans. As seen in the chart above, residential real estate loans as a percentage of total bank loans have surged from about 23% in 1999 to about 31% today. Follow Ups: Post a Followup: Name : E-Mail : Subject : Comments: : Larry - you are "chartless" Maybe your image didn't get loaded by the server. : Anyway, this is all well and good, but theory has never made me a dime. Strategy, yes. Effort, yes. Perseverence, training, connections, favors, patience, yes, yes, yes, yes. But theory, no, not so much. Your post would be much more relavent to me and likely to other if you could tie in what you intend to do with this information. : For example, all government studies, university sampling and institutional research strongly suggests that people will continue to die and leave behind messes. OK. I know what to do with this information. Look for their messes and find a way to add value in the "cleaning up" process (real estate, of course). : I think that we're past the point of needing a reading on the market. Besides, as a favorite author of mine suggests, "When the sage points to the moon, all the idiot sees is his finger." So true. : Rick, the-wannabe-philosophical, probate guy. : ================================================= : : With home prices set to move even lower as inventory is reduced, and monthly payments set to rise as mortgage rate resets kick in, more and more homeowners are in danger of delinquency, suggesting more widespread foreclosures. As you can see in the chart below, housing affordability has been in a free fall. : : Delinquencies lag affordability, but note the big subsequent surge in delinquencies after affordability sank in 2000¡V2001. Affordability is much worse today than it was during the last recession, in 2001, while household debt payments have jumped to nearly 14% of disposable income, an all-time record. With home prices and mortgage rates receding, there is hope for a bottom in affordability. But given the lagged effect, a rise in delinquencies may already be baked in the cake. : : : : Banks may be at risk as well, as they have become steadily more dependent on residential real estate loans. As seen in the chart above, residential real estate loans as a percentage of total bank loans have surged from about 23% in 1999 to about 31% today. Optional Link URL: Link Title: Optional Image URL: [ Follow Ups ] [ Post Followup ] [ The Forum Board ] [ FAQ ] WWWAdmin 2.0a © 1997 Matt Wright and DBasics Software Company, All Rights Reserved

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